Last year, before the 2024 NFL Draft, I referenced a maxim from ESPN Radio’s Evan Cohen on Unsportsmanlike: “Teams ought to draft a quarterback when they need one, so they’ll never need one.” Its opposite is also good advice—teams should never draft a QB unless they think in them.
That maxim has controlled this offseason. A number of teams in dire need of a QB circumvented the draft by trading for veterans:
The Giants signed Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston.
The Jets signed Justin Fields.
The Raiders traded for Geno Smith, and the Seahawks replaced him with Sam Darnold.
The Steelers are the front-runners to acquire Aaron Rodgers.
Nevertheless, even after going through these efforts, there are still a number of teams—like the Titans (No. 1 pick) and Browns (No. 2 pick)—who do not have a franchise QB. Even the Giants and Raiders may take a passer high because Wilson and Smith are stopgap selections. Why Teams Are Reluctant on the 2025 QB Class
This approach makes sense when the draft class is weak—and this year’s batch is not on par with 2024’s all-time batch, which had Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix (all top-12 picks).
The 2025 class lacks that sort of star power:
Cam Ward (Miami) and Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) are solid but not on Williams’ or Daniels’ level.
The rest of the group comes with major question marks (which we’ll explore in our projections).
As a result, QB-needy teams face a tough choice: reach for a flawed prospect, settle for a mid-round project, or wait until 2026. Introducing QBASE 2.0: Evaluating the 2025 QB Prospects
To assess this year’s class, we’ve updated QBASE 2.0, a model combining:
Andrew Healy’s unadulterated QBASE (2015) – Adjusts for competition level, support staff, and career path.
Alexandre Olbrecht & Jeremy Rosen’s functional mobility indicator (2018) – Factors in running ability and toughness.
The formula spits out Total Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement per Attempt (TDYAR/A):
0.0 = Replacement-level QB
1.5+ = Hall of Fame career
Using 50,000 simulations, we’ve projected each QB’s potential outcomes. Below, they’re ranked by Scouts Inc.’s draft order, along with their likelihood of hitting key performance tiers.
Key Takeaways:
No surefire stars – Unlike last year, no prospect has a clear elite projection.
High bust risk – Several QBs have wide outcome ranges, meaning teams could regret reaching.
2026 could be the real prize – If a team can wait, next year’s crop (headed by Arch Manning, Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers) might be more valuable.
This year, more than ever, patience can be the best strategy for QB-starved teams.
Here are the projections for the top seven QBs in the 2025 class:
Projections for the 2025 class
Cam Ward, Miami
Cam Ward Miami Hurricanes, Quarterback
Scouts Inc. ranking: 7
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Scouts Inc. ranking: 28
Ward is not the only record holder in this class, as Sanders set the career FBS completion percentage mark with 71.8%. Sanders was more accurate than Ward, but his minus-0.5 rushing yards per attempt in 2024 (minus-0.6 in his career) counted against his higher accuracy.
If Sanders’ expected draft position were the same as Ward’s, their QBASE estimates would be closer. But it’s crucial to remember that in the most recent classes (from 2018 to the present), mobile quarterbacks like Ward have performed better in the NFL.
